NH-NL index NYSE on July 28, 2014 U.S. indexes retreated by a half of percent on Friday. This is a normal saw range, if not pay attention to the fact that under the onslaught of hungry bears "generalship" Dow Jones skedaddle the farthest. Index NHNL got down well, and the indicator of it is clearly reversed on the place "round". This lets us expect a further decline at the beginning of the session on Monday, when frightened American dentists received these disappointing news on the weekend will join to a drop. I closed a quarter of my short on Friday, and will close a quarter more of the rest of my position when the morning drop pauses. I believe that self-confident buyers will at least gash for the beginning, and then try to go back to the levels of Thursday. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on July 25, 2014 Nothing has happened on Thursday. Saw-fluctuations by a half of percent up and down  in the U.S. session finished with zero result. Index NHNL and its indicator crept up by inertia. In the given current situation, namely a doji candle at historical highs and before-divergence appearance, you have to wait a correction in the near future. While executing the plan, I added short at the end of the session, which looked very nervous for those who were not ready for it. I’m waiting for a decline if not today - since Friday - then on Monday. Especially when you consider that geopolitical surprises often happen at the weekend, God forbid. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on July 24, 2014 On the background of decent results of the reports of technological and medical sectors, S & P 500 rose 0.18% and showed record values 26th time this year. NASDAQ gained 0.40%, but DowJ, on the contrary, declined. NHNL went up, its indicator also looks up, but they are in a state before-divergence both. This suggests that at the beginning of the American session, encouraged buyers will try to climb even higher. However, after this you should expect reversal signals, as the market is in a turmoil. As usual, I refuse to buy a new top, and will wait topping signals or the end of the session. Due to imminent correction I will increase short with a subsequent transition to the saw on Friday - Monday. Enlarge picture   NH-NL index NYSE on July 23, 2014 Projected increase in the U.S. market held on Tuesday. Indices gained half a percent that is traditional in a saw, NASDAQ added 0.66%. Buyers familiarly sights on storming new all-time highs. NHNL index moved up, and turned up its indicator. They did it reluctantly, remaining at low values​​. This suggests that even if new market tops emerge, there will a divergence and the inevitable fall after. At the end of the session bulls showed no divergence, which means their weakness. So I added shorts on the levels of the end of the session with the expectation of a half-point correction tomorrow. After it will be seen whether the market is going to go higher. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on July 22, 2014 U.S. indices declined moderately on Monday near by a quarter percent. During the session a level by a half of percent decline was reached - classical amplitude in the saw, NASDAQ lagged. Jigsaw sleepy summer realm could be swayed with the UN Security Council meeting with its swearing of representatives of the countries vying for influence in Ukraine. However, the Russian Ministry of Defense briefing information that Malaysian Boeing fell non-fact-that-at-fault-rebels questioned the fact that on Tuesday, EU meeting supports sectoral sanctions against the Russian economy. In a word "a dog barks, but the caravan moves on", - the Saw continues. On Tuesday I expect another attempt of  the buyers to rise above with a divergence at the end, which will target the next step down. I’m going to pace up and down until the end of the week. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on July 21, 2014 A bounce took place, and how! On Friday, U.S. indices showed enviable diligence, fading the fall of the previous day. Starting with a half-point gap up, the markets ended the day on highs of Thursday. NASDAQ played back its one and a half percent, S&P 500 and DowJ were habitually behind. NHNL practically remained in the place, as well as its indicator. The current situation suggests that the market uncertainty reigns. On Monday we can expect another lukewarm attempt to grow up, which should result in another sluggish failure. Summer! It wasn’t an easy matter for me to wait for the end of the session, where I finally saw the divergence on the 15 min chart and fully restored shorts. On Monday, the restored third can be used in the inevitable saw, which can drag on for another couple of days. Unless, of course, nothing will shake the world geopolitically. Enlarge picture   NH-NL index NYSE on July 18, 2014 It looks like the start of a downtrend took place. On the background of geopolitics, U.S. indexes swooped down following the long-suffering Malaysian airlines. NASDAQ fell by 1.41%, outperforming the rest. Index NHNL decreased not as much as you would expect. Its indicator did not go too far too. This suggests that players are waiting and after the first attempts to go even lower on the start of the session, we should expect a rebound somewhere by half a percent, or even more. I closed even the third of the position at the end of the session, preparing for Friday and Monday, when the market is likely to go sideways. Congratulations to those, who are together with me, with a well-deserved profit! Enlarge picture   NH-NL index NYSE on July 17, 2014 The growth of U.S. indexes, which held on Wednesday, occurred after the rollback and the situation has not really changed. Moreover, the reporting season in the U.S., during which markets traditionally used to grow, - slips. NASDAQ rose by 0.22%, while its colleagues have added about 0,42-0,45%. Geopolitical situation has worsened as a result of the applying of U.S. sanctions against Russian companies, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Israel and Iraq. Index NHNL on NYSE shows no headway, and it’s indicator is low. All this implies a decline of markets in the short term. On Thursday, after data of jobless claims, the mood of the players will determine on the Friday-Monday period. It would hardly be rosy. As it has been predicted, I added shorts before closing on Wednesday. A quarter of the total position I’m going to fix on today's low, whatever they may be, to free up funds for Friday and Monday’ saw. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on July 16, 2014 As tried euphonious Ms. J.Yellen yesterday, but all the same, she acknowledged that Internet companies are overvalued. This reservation during her speech at a hearing of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday gave rise to the expected decline in the index NASDAQ. As well as the market in general, for now there is nothing to reassure markets. Diligent shoppers continue to show loyalty to the trend-following tactics. You can’t be hard on them at this reproach, as graphs quotes on major U.S. indices look great! But if you look at what looks like the behavior of the index NHNL, you can notice the hidden trends. NHNL index is simple, but allows to estimate the market deeper, and this is evident in the chart of the NHNL index of NASDAQ (on black background). On Wednesday,  I expect attempts buyers to buy, and will sell in the event of topping signals. Most likely, they will appear at the end of the session. Enlare picture Enlarge picture       NH-NL index NYSE on July 15, 2014 After the morning gap by 0.5%, U.S. indexes slightly was frozen and  declined a little bit then at the end of the session. NHNL index also went up. Its indicator suspended fall, but remained at a low value, which means still a significant amount of new lows on the market. As has planned, I added shorts at the end of the session, so as not today, then tomorrow I expect further decline. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on July 14, 2014 The saw situation stalled markets. Indexes added  on Friday  in an attempt to regain the advantage of buyers, the NASDAQ gained 0.44%, while the S&P 500 only 0.15%. From this it follows that an upward trend will continue on Monday and then likely will return downwards. It is possible to talk about it seriously because  NHNL index went way down as well as its indicator. This means that a quantity of stocks that are traded at their lows has increased . I'll wait for topping signals, which are likely to be followed at the end of the session, and will add shorts. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on July 11, 2014 There was another decline in U.S. indices on Thursday and the NASDAQ lost 0.52%, slightly ahead of the rest. The decline was reluctant, as dropping in the opening was almost completely redeemed bold buyers. However, fear index VIX rose this week from indecently low values ​​and increased to 13.5. Index NHNL and its indicator has also been steadily declining. This suggests the possibility of further fall, which can become quite sharp, when complacent buyers look at the VIX chart. On Friday and Monday, I look forward to continuing the saw situation, which I will not fail to take advantage, keeping skewed downward. Enlarge picture Enlarge picture         NH-NL index NYSE on July 10, 2014 Indexes bounced up on Wednesday, almost fading the fall of the previous day. NASDAQ grows slightly faster, than it’s brothers in the shop, and then on Thursday the bulls try to climb even higher. NHNL index also moved up a bit, but its indicator goes below zero and confidently aims further to South. Decor looks like saw, and skewed down, so I will wait for attempts of buyers to grow to open additional brief shorts. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on July 9, 2014 U.S. indexes slid down on Tuesday. NASDAQ lost twice more than its counterparts, which suggests that the decline is likely to continue early on Wednesday. Index NHNL, as well as its indicator is declining and it is a good sign for us, Bears. Confident tread of the NASDAQ says that most likely we would have to agree with it. Therefore, as usual, I’m picking up part of the profit and wait another day or two of further decline.   Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on July 8, 2014 The expected hangover came after the predictable pre-holiday lift. On Monday, U.S. indices corrected by 0.3-0.4%, and the NASDAQ dropped by material 0.77%. This gives reason to expect further correction. NHNL index is falling for a second day and crossed the lines of support, as well as its indicator. The first goal of reducing I see 1950-1925 of the S & P 500 with a good prospect of subsequent sinking down to 1875.   Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on July 2, 2014 U.S. indexes added together, and the NASDAQ fell behind. This is a good sign for us, sellers, despite the fact that the S & P 500 showed a new all time high. However, the index NHNL confidently rushed up, as well as its indicator. As usual, I refuse to buy a new top, waiting for topping signals during Tuesday's session. Moreover, most likely, they may follow in the end of the session, with a divergence on a 15 minutes chart. Only and in this case, I will add short. It’s dangerous without any signals, buyers are complacent again, even too much. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on July 1, 2014 As I expected, S&P 500 and DJ slightly declined, NASDAQ looms overhead, gaining 0.23% on the results of Monday's session. Index NHNL also added, making fluctuations within the converging triangle. Still I don’t see any technical or fundamental reasons for continued growth. That’s why I continue to adhere to the tactics of the saw, keeping shorts alive. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on June 30, 2014 On Friday, the S & P 500 gained 0,19%, NASDAQ 0,43% at the time as DJ stopped at zero. NASDAQ growth suggests a new attempt of bulls to grow on Monday, which is likely doomed to failure. Index NHNL is pointing up in the correction to the previous reduction and, together with the it’s indicator shows the uncertainty of the market situation. I’m pleased to continue to use the saw tactics, keeping shorts. Enlarge picture   NH-NL index NYSE on June 27, 2014 Levels of indexes in USA almost haven’t change at the end of the day. Having started a session from decreasing caused by Mr. Bullard comments that QE 3 will finished in October, quotations returned to previous values, NASDAQ showed total zero at that. NHNL index rose a bit but its indicator keeps going to decrease. We can see a state of extreme uncertainty that together with reducing of redemption of state bonds and impairment of the statistic creates bad picture for purchasers. I can only repeat my recommendation for Bulls: exit longs until too late! When everyone rush to exit, the door will appear to be too narrow and exit price will lead into serious loss. Enlarge picture   NH-NL index NYSE on June 26, 2014 Indexes added on Wednesday despite of sagging at the beginning of the session due to bad statistic on GDP of USA for the first quarter was published. GDP lowered by 2.9%. However quotations moved up after opening and NASDAQ closed higher than it’s colleges with a result of +0.68%. It lets me expect harum-scarum purchasers to try go higher but index NHNL and its indicator are confidently looking down. To make more large-scaled decision we should see sloped trend support lines crossing  on charts of index and indicator both. Saw tactic is going on and I keep holding shorts. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on June 25, 2014 American indexes predictable slid down by 0.6-0.7%. It was predictable as indicators directly pointed out to this reducing and common market situation didn’t stimulate growth as well. NASDAQ was behind and lowered by 0.42%. It tells me about the fact that now we can see only beginning of the decreasing and that Bull’s attempts to climb higher are possible. But if to take into the account the fact that decreasing happened after new highs lets us expect that this moving down can turn into a falling. I congratulate everyone who together with me didn’t fall to temptation to exit shorts and are reaping deserved income. Leaving three quarters in sales I keep on depending on the possibility to saw with this quarter today as well. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on June 24, 2014 The market situation has not really changed. American indexes closed on the Friday's levels. Long live the SAW! I keep compensating previous loss by saw tactics, waiting for a decline. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on June 11, 2014 Nothing has really changed in USA on Tuesday, indexes slightly moved only. Many data-feed centers suffered from technical difficulties. Hm.. NH-NL index NYSE on June 10, 2014 Weak growth by one tenth of the percent within the bounds of a small saw took place on Monday. NASDAQ was the only which lifted up by 0.34% and it isn’t respectable as well. The rise like this can’t be taken as important. NHNL indicator decreased and marked first alarm signal for purchasers by this. In case it happens, the next one will be as crossing of NHNL of slanting support line and the same crossing on the oscillator. VIX had also bottomed out its record low values and drew a divergence. On Monday I expect Bull’s stubborn attempts to jump even higher which are very likely to lead to moving down. Correction is going to be sharp as purchasers will trying to run out to save an income and a door in such cases is as usually narrow. So I’m going keep sawing and keep shorts.   NH-NL index NYSE on June 09, 2014 Indexes are marching upwards and to the end of the session all of them added next half of percent. I cannot help but put sales spoon of a tar into purchases’ stupefying barrel full of honey. Volatility index VIX of Chicago Board Options Exchange also known as fear index slid down so low first time within recent seven years and a half. Fear is lost that is inadmissible in our deal as ordinary forming of the market top will start sooner or later. Usually it is accompanied with a divergence at week charts with volatile dashes up and down by 150-200 points of S&P 500 index in a week. By the way a nice divergence should be formed on Monday (see Divergence) for the beginning at 15-minutes chart then at 30-minutes chart and probably at hour chart. However before rushing to short I’m going to wait for a confirmation because continuation of the saw is very likely. Fast moving down and return to level 1925 under &P 500 index is also possible. Enlarge picture Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on June 06, 2014 ECB decreased a rate for deposits to indecently negative -0.1% and to minimal bill rate 0.1%. After such news American indexes dove on pre-market for a short time and then expectably jumped up. NASDAQ is ahead, it grew by one percent; DOW is third having added 0.59%. I haven’t waited until proper divergence having bought my one third while deep dive on pre-market, because you shouldn’t miss moments like this. I had a risk to add sales a bit at the end of the day, for quotations can go even higher. However I can easily wait till it is over after three day saw. I’m still a follower of the meaning that it is wrong time to buy fresh highs. I sell  l them Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on June 05, 2014 Indexes went not so far away on Wednesday, as it was expected. NASDAQ was an exclusion that added 0.41%. Taking it into account I can make a conclusion that we should expect a jump upward before long-awaited falling down this day or tomorrow. If it happens, we should look after turning signals during the day and a beautiful divergence will be drawn both on futures and on S&P 500 index itself in case these signals occur. So far I’m enjoying a saw, exploiting third part of the position and compensating loss of last week. I’m carefully keeping shorts for today which will be useful a bit later and I’m looking forward to dashes in European session under Mario Draghi’s speeches after the meeting of ECB. Enlarge picture   NH-NL index NYSE on June 04, 2014 All American indexes unremarkably declined on Tuesday. Now we wait for ECB’s decision which should follow G7 meeting where it would rather be made. They are holdin a meeting in Brussels not for nothing. It’s very likely they will threaten with anti-Russian sanctions again. My forecasts were effective, a saw keep doing it’s dim task and I get an income having compensated perseverance in sales last week. I’m going to continue the same tactic today and tomorrow expecting the saw will widen and go down at the end of the week. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on June 03, 2014 Nothing has actually happened during recent day however DOW and S&P 500 have reached new tops. Indexes lowered to Friday’s minimum and moved higher afterwards but NASDAQ was behind again and closed with a result -0.13% It gave me an opportunity to take part in a saw which I had predicted. I suppose it will be continuing nearest couple of days then stocks can moved down. It is high time. It is high time. enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on May 29, 2014 Almost nothing has changed yesterday however my devoted NASDAQ rolled away from first positions. It is leading a retreat now with 0.28% of reducing. S&P 500 had also rolled away from historical highs as well as volatility index VIX of Chicago Board Options Exchange symmetrically crawled away from annual lows. At the beginning of the session, as I expected yesterday, quotations firstly moved up  and  rolled down afterwards without any divergence . As soon as a price went down through yesterday' maximum, I added a short. I’d rather stay in it during next couple of days if purchasers won’t climb higher than today’s high. Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on May 28, 2014 So American S&P 500 grew on 0.6% and is on new top now. Crisis in Europe doesn’t touch American exchanges and it is no wonder. News about death of dozens of people and bombing of the airport of Donetsk are in the eights place after news about General Motors recall of cars which is among most important news of the last day. It seems like European crisis and Asian crisis afterwards are necessary for exchange forthcoming inviolable future in the USA. The more fear is in the world the more money is in USA. Results of durable-goods orders in April added assurance to Bulls. Instead of expected being lower by 0.8% they grew up by 0.8%. It happened due to US Navy’s a $17.6 billion contract for 10 nuclear-powered attack submarines in nearest five years (Wall Street Journal stylistic). Now we see which way money of purchasers’ of American bonds are spending! NASDAQ is ahead again having added 1.22% and Dow is a bit behind having added 0,42% only. Generals including General Motors are shy and I can understand them. I can understand as I see purchasers’ record careless on VIX index of Chicago options exchange. It is on too low level which is not normal and it can’t continue long. Nevertheless I refrained from rasing sales on Tuesday. Traditional divergence in 15-minute S&P 500 chart at the end of the day was not convincing and NASDAQ didn’t inspire to sell. I’m going to wait until Wednesday and will watch carefuly signals of indexes during the day. If S&P 500 goes under Tuesday’s maximum after a jump up – I will enter the short expecting income of 1-1.5% Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on May 27, 2014 Stock exchanges didn't work in USA and London on Monday because of celebrating Memorial Day in USA. European market places used it and moved up. However, fighting in Donetsk and renewal activity of Ukrainian military forces face the prospect of turn this Tuesday in Memorial Day in Ukraine. So may be my short will legitimate expectation as new Ukrainian president isn't like to be peaceful. Otherwise he is like to be sequential. NH-NL index NYSE on May 26, 2014 Session was over with weak and predictable lift to historical tops but it is hardly can be called a storm as indexes added about 0,4% only. NASDAQ again dashed aside higher on 0,76% therefore nothing geopolitical will happen on Sunday then we can expect hard tour of dentists farther on tops. Why dentists? - If you would only see where index of volatility of Chicago Stock Market CBOE VIX moved down! It is generally assumed that it is a fear index and on Friday it reached its annual minimum of 11,36 points. Now clever money is going out from the stock market together with USA FRS System's gradual reducing of fertilizing financing of the American government. It is notable by quotations' tiring beat on historical tops with shorter rounds higher and by overpowering correlation of options' rates for benefits of growth and a number of Bull in the Market. Who is afraid of nothing on Monday and tending to jump into last cabin of quotations which are going higher? - Complacent "investors" who read a lot of stridulous rhetoric phrases about stability of American economy and growing real estate market in weekend, who are supposed to be dentists. They had six years to forget lessons of 2008-2009 and keep enough cash to pour it off to hidden for a while Bears. I'm not hidden. I closed a quarter of sales on Market opening on Friday having grabbed an income. Afterwards I was humbly waiting until traditional divergence in 15-minutes chart at the end of the day and then re-opened short being devoted to my saw tactic. On Monday I plan to admire purchasers' attempts and will look after NASDAQ and will wait for a good moment to add sales. The fact is that after such a number of VIX I have to wait for its lift and this process will be accompanied by  S&P 500 move to 1840 as minimal. In case if nothing happens on Sunday. Enlarge picture Enlarge picture NH-NL index NYSE on May 23, 2014

Now we'll see weather or not purchasers have enough power to get on the next top! Every lift makes Bulls’ time of being on top even shorter, Bears’ being even nearer and Generals be running out even faster. Indexes recently finished a day with modest growth, S&P 500 hung over line of resistance of 1890, NASDAQ was ahead. It is possible to make a conclusion that storm will take part but it will be weak.

I had to close one third of the position when S&P 500 went over 1890 and fixed losses. At the end of the day after usual divergence in 15 minutes chart I re-opened part of closed shorts.

I'm waiting for indistinct saw today with its continuation on Monday. That's why I choose saw tactic for the quarter of my shorts which I'm going to scalp to return part of my losses while Bulls are lagging higher. The rest short I'm keeping for a case of second coming to 1860 where I'll look at NASDAQ for future forecast

enlarge

NH-NL index NYSE on May 22, 2014

USA stayed at the same place again. Indexes got back in a mirror-like manner compensating move down of the recent day. Magnificent Ms. Yellen made her indirect impact being invisibly represented on Stock Market by minutes of the FOMC meeting. There was nothing special in these minutes. Members discussed some measures for smooth moving to higher interest rates and talked about the flexibility, - but who could know why, - it did grow!

S&P 500 stopped under the line of 1890 points having exactly drawn a wide sawing range I had arranged beforehand. I waited untill divergence in 15-minutes chart happened and re-opened downwards my quarter of position, staying devoted to saw tactic with a bias down. It is interesting that having gone far up, a stock BAH which I finished to short a couple of weeks ago (you can see my inglorious attempts in archive), finally fell down yesterday by 10% and some moments it flew down on -15%! It is very symptomatic fact in the context of other signals of technical analysis.

Today an interesting session is coming. I wait attempts to move up in the
beginning with very possible obstruction to 1840 after data release about existing home sales. It can be quite disappointing

разочаровать.

Enlarge picture
Enlarge picture

NH-NL index NYSE on May 20, 2014

American indexes grew a bit. Purchasers are going to take level 1890 by storm judging by leading growth of NASDAQ. However, because of my caution to any growth last month’s I suppose it is a ruse of war.

Moving upstairs that have begun from 15th May is more looks like a bounce during falling than next rally. 1860-1890 line by index S&P 500 is determinant for definition of winner. Penetrating of low border will mean start of a dimensioned moving to levels of 1790-1810 that I'm properly waiting for.

I'll wait till all attempts of growth are over to increase sales in case of turning signals during a day. It is a time to take a risk.

Enlarge picture

NH-NL index NYSE on May 19, 2014

And a battle is ongoing and a heart is feeling uneasily in a chest..Words of this old soviet song describe current market situation very good while restless Bulls keep trying to reach slippery market tops once and once again. American indexes increased about one third as I expected. NASDAQwhich was behind in falling leaned out higher with relief and added half of percent.

It lets us expect mixed-up flip-flop will be continued at the beginning of a week.We are rather going to continue "sawing" to my great happiness but to fall down unexpectedly far southward is also possible as indicators NH-NL in so many words point out to continuation of reducing.

Therefore I'm going to keep on saw tactic with a bias down on Monday that means to unload part of shorts downstairs and add sales on tops as soon as turning signals begin to accumulate. (See " Signals accumulation")

Enlarge picture

NH-NL index NYSE on May 16, 2014

Dow lost exactly one percent, S&P 500 lost about it and NASDAQ rema-a-ains behind. It looks like beautiful numbers of jobless claims caused outbreak of purchasers’ indignation and sellers’ enthusiasm.

It once again confirms illness of standing upside-down american stock market because things which are good for economy - are bad for markets And it is no wonder on a background of articles about arising of not-profitable business in a future which are published in press. It says the people don’t need an income anymore they need gadgets and internet only they don’t care about incomes and they are ready to exchange with services for free. These are miracles for me and I have no comments about that.

Two hours before closing of the session I have reduced to one third of common position which I picked up yesterday and day before yesterday and I congratulate those who joined me. Wide “saw” with dashes is expecting us today and on Monday and I’m certainly going to use it. Unwillingly reducing NASDAQ and S&P 500 reached first support level both point out to this. In case if It breaks through rapidly I’m going to keep usual skew down.

skew down.

Enlarge picture

NH-NL index NYSE on May 15, 2014

We can  look for a long time for reasons why USA Market moved down yesterday but it will be like naughtiness. I expounded them long ago in October of the last year (see “Perspectives of USA economic”).  Indexes lost from 0,47% up to 0,72% at the close.

NASDAQ was a leader of falling and that let me solemnly add shorts, while quotations were rattling at the same place. I closed half of them at the end of the session with quite good profit and the rest was saved for the future.

The fact is that there are not clear signals confirming that market is going to crash down soon but I have a feeling like this. It is necessary to observe  premarket today. If unemployment claims disappoints, then it should catch a moment of jumping and shoot flying up fowl as it will provide a  “saw” at least! If the falling continues to the evening then it will be a good bid for tomorrow perspective and a negative week as a whole. Because tomorrow is a monthly expiration day of indexes’ futures & options.

Enlarge picture

NH-NL index NYSE on May 14, 2014

At the opening of session Bulls dashed to conquer new historical maximum like red cavalrymen. It capitulated but not for a long time and American indexes rolled back to it's previous position. Dow Jons added miserable 0,1%,  S&P stayed the same while NASDAQ went down by 0,33%.

When at to the end of the session it became clear that purchasers got exhausted, and NASDAQ changed former energy to tendency of run out of steam, - I carefully started my sales. Very modest position size will let me fill well in any situation.

Today I’m waiting for signals confirming reducing and going to add. I like the time then the market is brokenly trying to jump up but hiccups some times only and then falling down to hell with a whizz. It is dangerous to stay on the way of the herd of purchasers but it is much more dangerous to stuck on Bear’s trail as they inspire fear and drive Bulls lower and lower.

Enlarge picture

NH-NL index NYSE on May 7, 2014

NASDAQ reduced on 1,38% at the same time, when S&P 500 and DOJi lost about one percent. I supposed yesterday to see growth at the beginning of the session and it did happen but was not long. Almost just after opening indexes dove under the support of 1875 points of  S&P 500 then smoothly walked even lower. Pessimism which was demonstrated by NASDAQ lets us estimate further moving to South.

I’m not expecting of serious reducing but theoretically markets should lose about one american strike of 25 points of  S&P 500 down to the weekend. Why? – Because it is Spring. Because it is technically nice. Because there is shooting in the Ukraine which is a European danger .

I congratulate everyone who hold firmly Bear’s mood together with me with deserved income and I’m going on to hold shorts today. I use dashes up for sales expanding just to 1840 of S&P 500 where the next stumbling block is located.

Enlarge picture

NH-NL index NYSE on May 5, 2014

On Friday I was observing how American session was finishing to the accompaniment of deadly reports from Ukraine with bitterness because people had to die. There were serious military operations in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk with using of aviation and armoured vehicles and Odessa distinguish itself with mass participation of its citizen in an armed fight there was automatic weapon used. I’m sincerely sorry it is like that!

Our hearts are with people who lost their relatives in bloody strikes.

I’m not the only one who was observing reports. Despite good data about American unemployment rate, speculators in USA didn’t go away to the holiday with massive calm purchase. Indexes reduced having dangled before in not wide saw. Although NASDAQ made it very unwillingly. Its reducing was in a result about 1/10 of percent only at the same time “generals” of DOJI index (Dow Jones Industrial – index of 30 blue chips USA with such a names as General Motors, General Electrics, General Dynamics e t.c.) run away from the Bull’s field faster of all: Dow reduced on 1/3 of percent.

On Monday we can wait both attempts to penetrate down support-resistance level of 1875 and efforts to get quotations higher of because of Bull’s steady desire to buy. It will lead to wonderful possibility to apply “saw” tactic with bending to sales. But as well as I see the situation today, in Saturday, it is probably one of the last peaceful days in Russian Federation.

Who knows what news bring on Sunday…

Enlarge picture

NH-NL index NYSE on April 29, 2014

Uncertainty. I think it is the main word that comes to my mind after yesterday American session. Dow added 0.5%, S&P 500 grew up to modest 0.3%. My favorite NASDAQ stuck at zero devotedly as I asked it to do yesterday. However events moved inversely-symmetrically to my plan of a game. At the beginning, indexes simultaneously jumped up then dropped down and after that soared after our defense minister Shoigu had made a statement that our military forces were taken away to a place of constant dislocation. It happened because he got guaranties that Ukraine wouldn’t use army forces against its people. We can only suggest what’s worth these guaranties as well as to suggest what’s the price for taking the army forces out and  in from its places of constant dislocation. I suppose that new places of dislocation are not far away from the constant ones.  But it was enough to provide a great wide saw which I expected by the highest standards.

The only thing I was not successful with was to decrease materially my sale positions at lows. Coming under the support line at 1850 of  S&P 500 at the beginning, quotations flew up almost by strike right under the resistance at 1875. I was not expected such a speed and my reaction was weak and I got no income as a result. Nevertheless I added shorts at the end of the session and increased a position. The problem is that indicators altogether show a convergent triangle and try to guess where it is going to break out to? – It can’t be up movement, really!

No great loss without some small gain and a stock BAH anyway brought me a half of dollar that’s why I started to look at it much friendlier. If it brings me $ 0.5 more - we’ll become friends again! Today I’m waiting indexes to slide down to support line of 1850 of S&P 500 as traders are waiting for a next 10 billion reducing of QE  tomorrow. It rather won’t be a surprise and QE will be reduced. So, we are shorting!

Enlarge picture

Enlarge picture

NH-NL index NYSE on April 28, 2014

Friday which I expected to be inactive was noted by reducing of average size. But NASDAQ moved down in an adult way on 1.75% having left Dow Jons behind more than two times.  This situation is symptomatic and lets us estimate continuation of the negative on Monday, at least at the beginning of the session. Moreover that the promised sanctions against Russia and political situation in Ukraine can bring oil to the fire of  Bears' enthusiasm. Index S&P 500 made serious hint to reject of growing when it went under important level of resistance of 1875 points. Sliding down of American indexes leads to the confirming signals in the NH-NL index chart of NYCE. It crossed down its moving average and it’s oscillator had also turned to the south.

I can congratulate people who were looking after development of the events together with me starting up from Tuesday, 22nd of April. We were not mistaken in our skepticism. An attack of dashing buyers had choked. It happened despite brilliant results of APPLE – a benchmark of American economy last years, which had reported on it’s result from Wednesday to Thursday. Commentators complaint about political crisis in Ukraine, weak banks’ reports e. t. c. The only I can do in this situation is to repeat my opinion that it is a time  to reap the benefit of careless-endless purchases which having place during last five years and especially last two years (see my article “Bear's reap” from 09.01.2014. I pointed out there to a beautiful divergence and possible correction which was due to happen. It took place in a week.) It comes a time to short highs instead of buying lows.

On Monday at the end of the session I expect little correction up and common result is about zero. Therefore I’m going to close quarter of my selling position somewhere in the beginning of a day and afterwards switch on a saw - tactic. Concerning whom who is observing my fight for a benefit with a capricious stock BAH, I can report that it had received an ultimatum. Having found nice double divergence I added to my shorts additional quarter of initial position on Friday. I’m waiting desired dollar from it’s price to my profit latest to Wednesday. If it will happen then I’m agree to dance with this girl on, as Alex Elder used to say. In opposite case I will have to reduce position seriously and cease to observe it as it is rather a toy in the hands of some strategic investor or fund. As for American scale it is not so big and it is enough for it to have one or two players who don’t give a damn about economic and technical analysis. To make any forecasts in the case is useless.